Let me interrupt this musical interlude to talk about facts and data from our very own Census Bureau. What got me thinking about it is this weeks US News and World Report. They had two articles that piqued my interest “Get Ready for the Age Wave” and “Entitled Americans Don’t Get It” by Jean M. Twenge. The first article talks about how life is going to change as Baby Boomers get old and the second article is about how Social Security and Medicare are going to have to change (i.e. reduce benefits) in order to survive this Age Wave.
Lets talk about the Age Wave. First, we are experiencing a huge population increase here in the United States. Below is a graph of the Census Bureau’s US population estimate.
As you can see, we are expected to grow from about 310 million people now to about 440 million people in 40 years. Wow is what I say. Where are they going to live? What are they going to do? I’m not too worrried about that, yet.
Now, lets look at the age component of the population.
The blue line is the total population between 18 to 64 years old. The red line is the total numbers of people 65 years and older. You will notice that this segment grows from about 40 million now to over 70 million people by 2030 or about a 75% increase. The working age folks in contrast barely move. from about 195 million now to about 210 million in 2030.
Lets look at it a different way, here is the percentage breakdown of these two groups over the same time.
Now, you see what I’m a little concerned about. Those folks who are in the prime working age are going to become less and less a percentage of the population as time goes by. These men and women are the ones who traditionally paid most of the taxes plus they get to spend money raising their kids and taking care of the elders. I know these people have broad shoulders but I don’t think they are going to be able to carry the whole burden.
Something is going to have to give. They are going to have to give a lot. Despite all the political blather about “not reducing medicare benefits” and “preserving social security” sooner or later we are going to have to face facts.
I’ll tell you how I think things are going to change.
- People are going to work longer. They days of working until your are in your mid-50’s and then going fishing or bowlling are done. I expect that if I’m able I’ll work until I’m about 70 or so. I hope that I can, I love my job and the industry I’m in..
- We are going to see a combination of increased Social Security taxes, increased age until eligible, and means testing. Go ahead, cry on my shoulder, its ok, you’ll live. However, people already on Social Security won’t see a decrease in benefits. Go ahead, cry some more, its not fair, but hey we just can’t just strand people now can we.
- Companies are going to have to change to handle people working longer. Younger people will pass over older people. Older folks may voluntarily step down from management positions in order to do work that is less demanding. The existing structures are going to change.
- If Boomers can’t stay in traditional organizations then we are going to have learn to hustle up consulting, temporary, and short term jobs or maybe even start up our own small companies.
- Our existing employer based health care system is going to change. It will have to. The existing system which everybody hated but then started loving when the Democrats started their push on health care reform will collapse under its own weight eventually because nobody, not our employers, nor employees will be able to afford it.
Yup, I’m part of that age wave. I agree the system is failing but I don’t know what the solution is. Nobody seems to be able to stop arguing long enough to come up with answers.
wow just wow…
Well, that’s heavy. I definitely have thoughts on health care reform since I worked in the health care industry for the past 10 years (until this past summer when I quit to stay home with the kiddos). Anyway, the ‘comments’ section probably isn’t the place to get into health care reform. Let’s just say the current system isn’t going to continue to work and the government plan isn’t going to work either. But, like I said, we’ll get into details another time.
Great post!!!!
Where is the music coming from? I don’t seem to be able to turn t off.
@mountain.mama – You are right. We are too busy arguing to listen to each other.
@Georgie – Thank You.
@Alyssa – I’d love to hear your comments sometime.
@Tulsa Gentleman – One of my earlier posts has a video embedded that starts up on opening. My apologies.
@Tulsa Gentleman – I removed the offending embedded video. It drives me crazy also.
Very interesting on what you think will happen. I will teach as long as I enjoy it. Not there yet.
you just gave me a headache. thanks.
=)
Doc and I have been certain for a long time that we will have to be our own Social Security.
Politicians suck.
I’m a huge Dylan fan, and yes that song has changed with the times.
Yep, times they are a changing. A thought provoking post Yogi.
I’m happy to have retired early. I am hoping that there will be a lot more part time work around. My concern is the lack of support for aging seniors in your country and mine. The longer we live, the more psychosocial complications.
@Bill – I think people should be encouraged to work as long as they like and are effective.
@Dawn – Sorry.
@Robert – I’m a latecomer to his songs. I like the early early stuff best.
@Baloney – I have believed that for a long time. I don’t think politicians suck. Us voters get whipped into frenzies involving slogans and epithets rather than thought about issues. Lots of cynical spinners on the right left these days.
@Denise – Thanks!
@Jenn Jilks – I’m glad that you retired early also. I can tell you have been very active. I hope that there is more part time work also and I think services for seniors are going to become more and more important.
Great Dylan song, but some depressing facts. You’re right, the politicians don’t want to touch our real problems, and if they don’t, we’ll run out of money to pay for these programs.
The wise man will fund his own retirement plan and not count on the government…
Great post, Yogi. I have been thinking of these issues a lot in recent days. The rise of the tea party movement gives me great concern. It’s not that I don’t worry about the deficit, I do. I think that they are not thinking of these issues. “Just say no” to taxes and spending is not a solution.
How about a “Coffe Pot” movement, one where people think about all of the issues.
Do we want to go back to the days before the New Deal where all but the wealthy worked until they were to sick and then lived with their children and died early? Would we rather pay more taxes and have government support our elderly? Homes where the elderly are wharehoused?
I am not being facetious, these are the very real choices we are faced with, ones the tea party advocates refuse to acknowledge.
@Janie – I think we have to not depend on social security for our retirement.
@Martha Z – The teabaggers worry me also. They seem to care mostly about symbols and not substance. I look upon it as a nostalgia party. They have this vision about the way things used to be and want to go back.
I worry about the scenario you talk about. We work until we cannot and then either live with the kids or scrape the best we can and hope that we don’t get sick.