I’ve been following the global warming controversy for some time. I think in the early 1980’s I saw my first graph of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere vs time and accompanying graphs of average surface temperatures over time. The trend started up in the late 1800’s following the advent of the industrial age.
(Note the above graphs and all the rest of the images, unless otherwise stated, are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change web site.)
I was interested but not too concerned. The issue got another lift when former Senator Gore became a spokesman and helped put out the movie “An Inconvenient Truth.” I didn’t really listen to him. Sorry, I didn’t care for him, so I didn’t listen to his message.
Then as the issue developed further Oklahoma’s own Senator Jim Inhofe came out with his message that global warming is just a big hoax. Of course, why scientists would perpetrate the hoax is not explained.
The whole time I was sitting back and just reading and pondering, but I was wasn’t reading and pondering very deeply. My position was that Earth may or may not be warming but it might be due to natural cycles beyond our control. I go to lots of energy industry conferences and stuff and since weather is vitally important to our business for a number of reasons I have many meterologists talk about weather patterns. They all acknowledged that the Earth is warming up, but they also said that they thought it inconclusive about whether humans are causing the warming up by our emissions of greenhouse gasses.
But now we are getting to the point where the USA and the rest of the world are talking about spending some serious money on the issue. Hundred of billions of dollars. Hey that wakes me up.
So I decided that it is time for Yogi to take a stand on this issue. The issue has become so polarizing though that it is hard to find non-biased sources. I’m an engineer and prefer arguments based on science, facts, and logic. I am also not a conspiracy theorist. So where do I start.
As luck would have I received the Winter 2010 Issue of “The Bent” which is an engineering honorary society (Tau Beta Pi) journal. There was an article in it Alan S. Brown who is a science writer. The article is “Climate Models and Their Critics.” (The article is not available online as far as I can tell.)
Climate models are very important because we cannot model the Earth in a laboratory. We have to model the weather. The models are very complex and have to take many factors into account. One simulation can take months to run on the most modern supercomputers. The models have got tremendously better over time but they are still approximate. All models are approximate so criticizing a model because it is not exact doesn’t make sense to me.
Mr. Brown references the Intergovernmenal Panel on Climate Change (“IPCC”). It is an international scientific body that that reviews climate research. Check it out I think they are solid. They won a 2007 Nobel Prize for their work on climate change. Their web site is amazing. They summarize findings from lots and lots of research. It is all foot noted and documented.
Here are some of their conclusions from the “Summary for Policymakers” from their last report.
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal, as is
now evident from observations of increases in global
average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting
of snow and ice and rising global average sea level”
Further:
“Observational evidence4 from all continents and most
oceans shows that many natural systems are being
affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature
increases.”
And:
“Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the
observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.
7 It is likely that there has been significant anthropogenic
warming over the past 50 years averaged over
each continent (except Antarctica)”
“Continued GHG emissions at or above current rates
would cause further warming and induce many changes
in the global climate system during the 21st century that
would very likely be larger than those observed during
the 20th century”
I could go on and on but I’ll just cut to the chase and say I am now a believer in the concept of human activity causing climate change by causing increased emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases.
So what does that mean? Nope I am not jumping over to the Democratic Party. The country still needs to evaluate what needs to be done about the problem. The proposed solutions are very expensive and need to evaluated on their own merit. For example I am totally against giving China 2 cents to help them solve their problems
So what about you, have you taken a stand on this issue yet? What is it?
I was under the impression that the world has had climate changes in the past – even before the industrial era began. The one thing that is constant is change.
I would love to see more opportunities available to reduce emissions. I’m okay with putting money in to researching that – here.
I still think there will be a warming trend in spite of our efforts.
@Baloney – the world’s temperature has been all over the place in the past. The thing is now that the human activity is changing the temperature up even when the cycle should be a slight cooling now.
The cost of restoring CO2 concentrations back to pre-industrial levels would be truly gigantic. Most countries are now talking about slowing their rate of increase per % increase in gdp which still means increasing CO2 emissions.
We are non-believers totally. The planet goes through these cycles and we are way too insignificant to impact it to this extent. I won’t back this up here, but the Hubster could bore you until your ears drop off with facts!
Super post! I wonder if this post gives off any green house gas? 🙂
I haven’t cared too much about climate change. I’ve done some posts along time ago on the issue, mostly just making fun of Al Gore.
I’ve also been confused as to what motivation (sans ideological conspiracy theories) scientists have to perpetrate a hoax.
If I know anything about gathering scientific knowledge, its that the more data you have, the more accurate the findings. There’s plenty of data out there to suggest it’s happening, so I tend to believe it is as the scientists say it is.
As to those controversial emails, I also understand how jargon and slang gets twisted. For instance, “pigging” is an oil and gas term that has nothing to do with making something pork-like. Simarlary, “tweak” is a term that has many meanings. Those emails are insignificant.
There are scientific ways of proving a hypothesis, I haven’t seen any positive evidence (other than antecdotal) presented that its not happening.
I believe the evidence for global warming is indisputable at this point, and mankind’s emissions certainly seem to be responsible.
But what to do about it? Well, we should be moving toward cleaner energy over the next twenty years – solar, wind, and probably nuclear, both for innovative employment opportunities and to clean up our air. I don’t know what to do about the Chinese and other 3rd world countries, though.
Thanks for starting the discussion, Yogi. We all need to be thinking about this issue.
@Brit Gal Sarah – Thanks!
@Jeff – Thanks! When you look at the literature out there what you find is that the deniers are not gathering data or trying to build better climate models. They are just criticizing the existing models. I have yet to see a peer reviewed article by an atmospheric physicist who has disputed that humans are causing climate change.
@Janie – Thanks. What we do about climate change is where I think we need to spend our energy. I don’t think that we’ll ever get rid of fossil fuels, nor should we, but but I think a broader portfolio of energy sources including wind, solar, nuclear, and geothermal is in order.
I could just post what Sarah said, verbatim. LOL! Brett knows so much about this and has, of course, told me much about it. BUT, I think most of it went in one ear and out the other while I was playing Bejeweled! Hahaha!!!
Scientists say we have evolved from animals. Bullarky! So, just because a scientist or Gore said it, doesn’t make it so. JMO.
@Dawn – Thanks!
On days like today (9 degrees) it’s hard to convince me of global warming-hee hee. I’m somewhat on the fence, but most definitely lean towards what Sarah has to say. My hubs is a meteorologist (long story why he isn’t ‘practicing’ it professionally), so I get an interesting perspective from him.
But thanks for posting this…it’s better to be informed and hear both sides of the argument than sit with your head stuck in the ground.